I’ve sold high and bought back low while securing some cash on the sideline. Here’s how it happened.
When you’re playing high-stakes markets, it’s not just about conviction—it’s about knowing when to double down, when to cash out, and how to stay nimble. Over the past few days, I’ve seen my Polymarket portfolio grow substantially, and I’m strategically positioned to capitalize on future opportunities.
Let me walk you through the numbers and the decisions that got me here.
But first, if you’d like to know how the below setup came to be, I would recommend you read the initial post in which I describe why I have high conviction that Joe Biden will pardon his brother Jim “James” Biden: I’m betting $2,500 that Joe will pardon his brother Jim on Polymarket.
Where My Bets Stand current as of Saturday the 18th of January 2025, 8 PM CET
I transitioned from a single bet to three bets in total and almost $2,500 in cash on the sidelines through selling.
Here are the bets:
1. Main Bet – Jim Biden Pardon
- Current Value: $2,842.12 (+102.04%)
- Shares Held: 6,848 at an average price of 21¢
- Potential Payout: $6,848.47
This market is my standout performer. The price surged to 42¢, doubling my investment so far. My conviction in this bet remains strong, especially as we approach the final days of Biden’s presidency, where controversial pardons historically occur. I suspect weak bag holders and impatient hands are likely to capitulate Sunday evening or Monday morning if no pardon news emerges, creating potential panic selling.
2. Side Bet – SBF Pardon
- Current Value: $188.97 (+8.28%)
- Shares Held: 5,558 at an average price of 3¢
- Potential Payout: $5,557.90
This speculative play offers a significant upside. Even minor price fluctuations translate into substantial gains due to the low entry price. It’s a calculated risk with minimal downside. Less research has gone into this bet, but I made it based on the historical precedence of lowering sentencing to convicted campaign contributors (both Clinton and Trump have done it, too).
3. Side Bet – Trump Pardon
- Current Value: $46.92
- Shares Held: 1,738 at an average price of 1¢
- Potential Payout: $1,737.60
This is my ultimate “Hail Mary” bet—purely for the glory and the story. While I don’t believe it’s likely to hit (unless Biden wants to add himself truly into the history books as a guy who went out with a “country uniting bang” the upside is fun to think about, and it’s the kind of speculative wager that adds excitement to the portfolio. Sometimes, you need a trade that’s more about narrative than probability.
How This Came to Be: Actions Taken
Here’s the strategy behind my current positions:
- Initial Buy-In: Started with 12,501 shares in Jim Biden at $0.197 (19.7¢) per share, totaling $2,467.72.
- Profit-Taking: Sold portions of my Jim Biden position at higher prices ($0.29-$0.38), securing $2,026 in cash while retaining 6,848 shares.
- Accumulation: After these initial sales, I added shares during dips that followed ($0.21-$0.25), strengthening my position and improving my cost basis.
- Diversification: Entered speculative markets for SBF and Trump pardons at $0.03 and $0.01, respectively, balancing risk with the potential for high rewards.
- Flexibility Secured: The $2,026 in unlocked cash allows me to reinvest during dips caused by panic or undervaluation.
Strategic Observations
- Risk Management: By locking in $2,026 in profits, I’ve reduced exposure while ensuring I have funds available to capitalize on market corrections. This move minimizes the downside while keeping me prepared for opportunities.
- Dynamic Positioning: Buying low, selling high, and retaining a solid stake in my key market has allowed me to ride price surges while staying nimble.
- Confidence in the Jim Biden Market: The timing of Biden’s presidency ending and historical trends reinforce my conviction in this bet. My actions reflect confidence while lowering overexposure.
- Leveraging Volatility: Markets like these thrive on volatility, and my strategy positions me to profit from both upward and downward price movements.
What’s Next?
Jim Biden Market:
As Biden’s presidency winds down, the Jim Biden market will likely see significant volatility. I anticipate weak hands panicking and selling Sunday evening or Monday morning if no pardon news breaks. This presents an opportunity: I’ve already placed buy orders for prices between $0.15 and $0.19, and I’m ready to deploy up to $1,250 if the price dips further.
On the flip side, if the price continues to climb and doesn’t dip, I’ll hold my position and ride it out. If no opportunities arise here, the unlocked cash will go toward my next trades, including two intriguing markets: “Words in Trump’s Inauguration Speech” and the wild “Will Lily Phillips Bang 1000 Guys?”
Side Bets:
The SBF and Trump pardon markets remain speculative, but even small movements here can yield outsized returns due to their low cost of entry.
Market Dynamics:
The likelihood of controversial pardons increases as we approach Biden’s final days. Historically, these decisions are made in the last hours, and I expect the price in the Jim Biden market to trend up over time as it has done so far. Whether through dips or steady climbs, my strategy is to remain patient, disciplined, and opportunistic.
Final Thoughts: Positioned for Success
This portfolio is the result of calculated moves, discipline, and leveraging market volatility. By securing $2,026 in dry powder and maintaining strong positions across my bets, I’m set to maximize returns in the days ahead.
The market is volatile, but volatility creates opportunity—and I’m ready to capitalize.
I hope you take full advantage yourself.
God Bless American Politics.