Placing the Jim Biden pardon bet was driven by intuition, hours of research, and precedent. But nothing could have prepared me for the heart-pounding, nerve-wracking culmination that unfolded in the literal last minutes.
With less than two hours to go, panic was sweeping the market. Prices were plummeting, doubts were creeping in, and every instinct screamed to sell. My pulse raced as I watched the seconds tick by, knowing my entire bet now rested on a single act of faith—a final, almost mythical move from the “big guy” himself.
And then it happened. A perfectly timed pardon turned my 15¢ shares into a stunning 505% profit. The rush of adrenaline was unmatched.
This was no ordinary trade. This was the most electrifying, high-stakes victory of my Polymarket career. Let me take you through every twist and turn of the journey—from fear to fortune—in the trade that defined my year.
Timeline of Events: A Thrilling Build-Up
5:00 PM CET – The Setup
It’s the end of the day, and Biden and Trump are departing the White House together in an armored limousine. Biden looks visibly tired—his steps slow, his gaze unfocused. Watching this, I thought, Is this the man I’ve trusted to make the most critical decision of my Polymarket career?
Just hours earlier, Biden had pardoned the January 6 committee members, a strategic move to dominate headlines. This set the stage for a quieter, more personal pardon for Jim Biden. But it’s now less than two hours until Trump’s inauguration, and no pardon for Jim has surfaced.
5:10 PM CET – Fear Creeps In
The Polymarket price for “YES” is dropping fast to 25¢, 20¢, 15¢. Smaller traders are panicking and selling out of their positions. My heart rate spikes to 120 as I watch the market unravel, and doubt creeps in.
Why hasn’t Biden acted yet? Could I have been wrong all along?
I see my initial $2,500 investment—painstakingly built over weeks—eroding. With less than two hours to go, I’m staring at losses.
I scan the market data. Whales holding large “YES” positions haven’t sold, which calms my nerves slightly. Still, no one is buying more either, leaving the market in freefall. I am considering selling out completely to cut my losses.
But something holds me back.
5:20 PM CET – Conviction Prevails
I re-evaluate my research, considering the historical precedent of last-minute pardons, Biden’s demonstrated loyalty to his family, and the risk of leaving Jim exposed to a Trump-led DOJ. All signs still point to a pardon.
My conviction holds. I decided to deploy my $2,000 in cash reserves, previously unlocked by selling high at 29-38¢. As the price dips below 15¢, I buy more shares at increasingly favorable prices.
(Insert screenshots of trades to show purchase timeline and price points.)
I leave $1,000 in reserve. But my nerves are fraying. With less than an hour to go, the pressure is overwhelming.
6:00 PM CET – The Breaking Point
Trump and Biden are both inside the Rotunda for the inauguration. VIPs are filling the stage. How is Biden supposed to sign a pardon in the middle of this?
I feel defeated. It’s over.
Desperate for a distraction, I walk away from my screen. I pull my last buy order for 5,000 shares at 5¢ and head downstairs to play with my kids.
That was the best decision I made all day.
6:45 PM CET – The Moment of Victory
Forty-five minutes later, I return to my screen. And there it is: Joe Biden pardons Jim Biden.
The market has surged to $1 per share. My portfolio—built at an average cost of 16¢—is now worth $15,256.50, a 505% gain.
Biden executed the move perfectly, timing the announcement to follow the January 6 committee pardons and minimize media fallout. As Trump took center stage at his inauguration, Jim’s pardon became a fleeting headline in a sea of new political drama.
I let out a deep breath.
Relief, adrenaline, and disbelief flood my system.
Anatomy of a High-Stakes Trade
After those adrenaline-filled final hours, it’s time to look back at how the trade unfolded—to appreciate the outcome and dissect the decisions that led to it. From my initial conviction to the rapid shifts in market sentiment, each moment revealed something valuable about staying composed and strategic under pressure.
This wasn’t just about riding a wave but about navigating the ebb and flow with intention. Here’s a breakdown of the key moments, how they aligned with my initial strategy, and what I’d adjust in hindsight.
Breaking Down the Key Moves
Early Positioning
I started with 12,501 shares at an average price of 19.7¢, committing $2,467.72 to the Jim Biden bet. This was based on my conviction that Biden would prioritize family loyalty over optics in the final hours of his presidency. My strategy was simple at this stage: build a strong position early to capture the value of mispriced odds.
Evaluation: This aligned perfectly with my strategy. My early entry at favorable pricing set a solid foundation for subsequent moves.
Strategic Selling
As the market surged to 29-38¢, I sold portions of my position, unlocking $2,026 in cash. My reasoning was twofold: (1) lock in gains during periods of heightened volatility, and (2) prepare for potential dips if the market overreacted to delays in a pardon announcement.
Evaluation: This critical move reflected one of my core trading principles—capitalizing on volatility. It provided the dry powder I’d need later while reducing risk at a crucial time.
Aggressive Rebuying in the Final Hours
In the final hours, with prices plummeting below 15¢, I reinvested $1,000 to buy additional shares, lowering my average cost to 16¢. This was a high-stakes moment, and my conviction in the research drove the decision.
Evaluation: This move was both risky and necessary. While nerve-wracking, it stayed true to my strategy of buying into panic when conviction remained intact.
Maintaining a Safety Net
Throughout the trade, I left $1,000 in cash untouched, ready to pivot if new opportunities arose or if further dips created extreme value.
Evaluation: This was a wise safeguard. While I didn’t need to deploy the remaining funds, having this buffer added psychological confidence during uncertain moments.
Payout and Reflection
Coming off the high-stakes tension of this trade, the moment my Polymarket account reflected €15,534.38 felt surreal. This was my most significant single trade win to date, and I immediately channeled some of that into tangible, useful items. I bought:
- A Garmin Fenix 7 X Pro Solar (€650)
- A pair of Asics trail running shoes (€120)
These purchases weren’t just rewards but tools to propel me toward my next challenge, the 100k Snowdonia race this May.
The second thing I did after the funds hit my account was go for a run. It wasn’t just a way to celebrate—it was a necessity. That run helped me release the adrenaline and cortisol that had built up during the final hours of the bet. With each step, the tension melted away, leaving me clear-headed to reflect on what this win really meant.
This time, I approached my winnings with a level of caution that came from hard-earned experience. After a previous big win on the Trump bet, I impulsively reinvested a large portion of my profits into smaller, intuition-driven bets without proper research. Those trades lacked the strategic discipline that had fueled my earlier success, and I ended up losing a portion of my gains. I wasn’t going to repeat that mistake.
Determined to safeguard my profits, I withdrew the winnings immediately and made a firm commitment: no reinvestments unless backed by robust strategies and solid intuition. This wasn’t just about protecting the money; it was about protecting the mindset that had allowed me to succeed in the first place.
Beyond the financial aspect, the emotional journey was deeply rewarding. Walking downstairs to play with my kids after placing my final trades, I had already accepted the possibility of losing.
That acceptance transformed the eventual win into something profoundly meaningful—a moment of validation for riding it out with my fellow diamond hands.
Polymarket Philosophy: Sharpening the Edge
After reflecting on this trade’s emotional and strategic journey, it’s clear that it didn’t just end with financial success—it left me with valuable lessons to refine my approach. This trade reinforced and expanded my trading philosophy, teaching me critical lessons about strategy and mindset.
Below, I’ve compiled a list of lessons for my little backpack that I’ll carry with me into future betting adventures:
- Trust Intuition, Back It with Research:
Start with a gut feeling, but always validate it through analysis and logic. In this trade, my intuition about the mispricing stemmed from Biden’s past actions and the timeline of similar events, but thorough research gave me the confidence to go all-in and double down during last-hour downtrends. - Lock in Gains During Volatility:
Define triggers during research that signal the right moments to sell or reinvest. For this trade, I suspect that natural decay would cause the price trend to decline over time, with sporadic upsides based on new information and the emergence of new whales. These were backed-up assumptions, but they still helped me view the volatility not as just a risk—it’s an opportunity when you have a clear plan. - Diversify Only with Gains:
Use profits to explore speculative markets without jeopardizing your core capital when possible. After previous losses, I learned to safeguard my main position and only experiment with smaller amounts of money derived from successful selling at peaks during volatility. - Prepare for Emotional Swings:
Holding a 30-day bet will test your patience and nerves. Having cash on the sidelines, as I did during the final hours of this trade, provides a financial safety net and an emotional cushion. It helped me maintain composure during the sharp swings. - Define Exit Points in Advance:
Knowing when to sell—or hold—prevents panic-driven decisions. My strategy in this trade included clear actions for every major price movement, ensuring I stayed rational under pressure. - Work Within a Defined Timeline:
Trades with a fixed resolution date—like this one with less than 30 days—reduce uncertainty and help maintain focus. Open-ended bets are prone to second-guessing and emotional fatigue. - Go Big When the Market is Mispriced:
Your intuition can often sense when odds don’t align with reality. If the research supports it, act decisively. For this trade, recognizing the extreme undervaluation at 19¢ initially was the pivotal moment that turned the tide in my favor and led me to dig deeper and build a strategy.
Looking ahead, I’ll carry these lessons into my next trades. The plan is clear: identify opportunities with a defined timeline with favorable pricing, back my intuition with solid research, set actionable price triggers during favorable volatility, and always keep cash reserves for flexibility when possible. I aim to replicate success while mitigating unnecessary risks by adhering to this approach.
Final Thoughts: Trading vs. Life
This win was a defining moment—not just for my portfolio but also for my mindset. It validated the power of discipline, strategy, and conviction in the face of uncertainty. Yet, it also reinforced the importance of balance and perspective.
The adrenaline rush from this trade was unforgettable, but the real reward came from stepping back and reflecting on what matters most. Money is a tool to unlock opportunities and experiences, but it’s not “always” the ultimate goal.
For now, I’m channeling my focus toward new challenges. My winnings are safely withdrawn, earmarked for meaningful goals, and I’m turning my attention to my upcoming 100k Snowdonia race. This experience has sharpened my betting skills and appreciation for the life I’ve built beyond the markets.
When the next opportunity arises, I’ll approach it with the same careful strategy and grounded intuition. Until then, I’m enjoying the present, sharpening my skills, and remembering that sometimes, the best move is knowing when to pause and appreciate the journey so far.
