A few weeks back, I laid out my plan for the next four months until Snowdonia 2025: a mix of fear, focus, and forward motion. I’m deep in it, and the reality is starting to hit differently. The mileage has gone up, the mental load has increased, and somehow, I’m managing to hold it all together (most of the time).
Running: The Grind Has Truly Begun
Over the past few weeks, my weekly distances have steadily climbed. I’ve logged an 85k week, followed by a 75k week, and then last week hit a massive 95k+. Somehow, my body is holding up. That’s honestly surprising. But one thing that’s completely disappeared? A Need for Speed.
The idea of going faster just isn’t sustainable with this volume. I learned quickly that pushing the pace on easy runs just wears me down too much. So, that desire to “go faster” I mentioned in my last post? Gone.
The mileage demands too much from the body, and I’ve learned that respecting that reality is the key to surviving this build.
And to give you guys a peak into the weeks, the current schedule is brutal. The hours alone are mentally the toughest part:
- Monday – Rest day (thank god)
- Tuesday – Hill simulation on the Stairmaster (to torch the legs) followed by a 12k+ treadmill run
- Wednesday – Easy run (10-15k+)
- Thursday – Intervals or relaxed run with strides (11-14k+)
- Friday – Recovery run (still 10k+)
- Weekend – Back-to-back long runs (this is where the real test happens)
Back-to-back runs are a whole new experience. Last weekend, I ran 25k on Saturday, which felt like a solid effort. Then Sunday hit, and I had to lace up for another 32k within 24 hours of finishing my Saturday run. It’s one thing to run for two hours; it’s another to wake up the next day knowing you need to spend another four to five hours on your feet.
But this is the magic of ultra training: Teaching your body to keep going when it’s already wrecked. One of these two long runs is usually on the trails, which adds another layer of mental and physical challenge. And honestly, I can feel the adaptation happening. My legs are learning how to recover quicker and quicker, and I sometimes even feel that I’m recovering mid-run.
The big test is coming on April 29th. I’ve run a brutal week before that included a muddy 50k ultramarathon, but this time, I’ll be carrying my full Snowdonia kit. The complete kit is 7 kilos of gear (including water): batteries, headlamps, rain gear, chargers, food, and drinks—basically everything I’ll need for the 100k in Wales.
I’ll probably be the most over-geared guy on race day, but it’s all part of the plan. Simulate the weight, simulate the discomfort, and figure out the weak spots now, not on race day.
Parenting: Patience is Running Low
While I’m writing this, Nathalie has been away on a trip with her sister for five days, which means I’ve been on full-time twin duty (with backup from the nanny, thankfully). But even with the help, it’s been rough. Trying to keep two toddlers in check while being physically wrecked from training? Not easy.
I caught myself saying to a neighbor recently that this would be the last time I’d take on a challenge like Snowdonia 100k…
I said it out of shame, really. He’s also a dad of two, and I know he doesn’t take 10+ hours a week for himself to train. It felt selfish to admit that I was dedicating this much time to something personal.
But the truth is… I love it.
I love the challenge.
I love the structure it brings to my life. As I shared in my 2024 year review (my single most successful year holistically), I love how it makes me feel more focused and alive in every other area of my life.
It’s making me a better version of myself. And yeah, it’s hard to balance that against being a parent, but I’m learning that there’s value in showing my kids what dedication looks like.
That said, parenting is still testing my patience more than anything else. I’ve noticed that I go from 0 to 100 way too fast when things go sideways. For example, the other day, they peed on the wooden floor and then started wiping it everywhere in the hallway. Instead of responding calmly, I snapped, and the look on their faces told me everything.
Kids are tough, sure. They’ll bounce back.
But it’s something I’m aware of. I need to figure out how to find those middle gears. Not every reaction has to be full throttle. I need to learn how to live in the 30-60% range instead of always jumping straight to 100%.
Work: Laying the Foundation, but is it concrete or clay?
On the work front, things are coming into focus. My targets for the year are clear, and I know what needs to be done. Sales is simple in that sense. Hit the daily, weekly, and monthly targets, and the results will show up (eventually).
Right now, I’m still in the groundwork phase, planting seeds that will (hopefully) bear fruit in Q3 and Q4. But the pipeline looks good, and I’m collecting enough data to see where things are trending.
That said, I’m not that sure anymore about job security. I proposed a budget plan for additional support to grow the market, but that request was killed. I worked directly under the founder a year ago, but now there’s a global CRO above me and a VP of Sales for EMEA. For the company, I think it’s a good thing because it shows that we’re growing and successful, but for my position, I’m feeling more and more cornered in a small, unproven market with a limited budget.
But that’s the current situation, and there’s still a lot of potential earnings. You either earn or learn, or the holy grail where you get both. Right now, I have the earnings part locked down. But if that halts, I might need to see what’s out there.
That’s a tricky thought because I like the company and its prospects in the market. Plus, I have stock options worth something, so giving this up might be expensive. A voice in my head says, “Don’t give up too quickly and wait patiently for the payday.”
But then another voice says, “You made 30k cash gambling on Polymarket; take that money and go live your dream life for 4-6 months. For once in your life, don’t have a plan and just wander and see what’s out there.”
Anyway, as you can see, there are conflicting thoughts. But that’s life.
Markets: Still a Bear
I still haven’t touched the liquidity from selling the rental property, which is according to plan. I’ve been a bear for over six years, and I just can’t understand how the market keeps staying this strong. The global economy feels like it’s held together with duct tape, and I think a reckoning is coming.
When?
I have no idea, but that’s not important. I made enough gains, and I live frugally.
I’ll simply wait like a lion in the shade until the perfect gazelle comes by.
To meet this reckoning of a gazelle head-on, my plan is to buy SLV (Silver ETF) after the market takes a serious hit, not just a recession, but a proper 20%-50% correction. Specifically, I suspect a 4-10x run-up on silver, similar to what happened during the previous GFC.
But before that run-up, I think the entire market, together with SLV, will first tank by 50%+, as all other commodities did during the GFC. This tanking likely won’t happen all at once, but I suspect it will play out within 6-12 months, just like it did back then.
Gold will also tank, but I’m not planning to buy any gold ETFs. I only believe in solid gold, which I already own, but that’s more of a ‘shit is hitting the fan’ type of security. It’s like an ‘if all else fails’ hedge when we can no longer pay with digital money because an EMP has wiped out all payment portals at the grocery store, that’s when gold becomes valuable.
My plan to build up the silver position is to buy progressively all the way down. I’ll stop buying SLV around a 40-50% drawdown because I suspect a drawdown. I’ve allocated $100k for this trade in cash, which is currently just sitting in the bank collecting interest.
I might even consider borrowing money to expand the trade even more once the FED instantly slashes rates during a market meltdown. I haven’t researched the best place to borrow affordably in such a situation, but that’s for later.
I expect to be in the trade for a long time. Like in the GFC, I believe this boom in SLV will play out over 1-3 years. I suspect closer to 1.5 – 2 years since things move faster now than they did back then, mainly because of the Reddit and Robinhood-like platforms and the computerization of the market activity in the past 15 years. So, things could happen incredibly quickly.
And why not build a position in the GLD ETF also? Well, as before, GLD is just not affordable in the eyes of folks because people like to own a whole thing, which they could with silver. With gold, I suspect, because of the high prices, people will feel like they’ve missed the boat there. They’ll look for the next best affordable thing, which was SLV 15 years ago, and I assume people will follow the same pattern this time around.
Lastly, I’ll also be buying BTC after a large market crash. I assume that once we have a similar market situation to the GFC, BTC will tank by 70-85%, making it affordable when no one in their right mind will be touching it because it doesn’t yield anything and has no utility.
Betting: Up and Up
I’ve had a good run on Polymarket lately. The big win? Betting that Kanye wouldn’t drop a coin in February and now in March which paid out over $23k. That brings my total Polymarket P&L close to over $30k.
To celebrate, I picked up an Omega De Ville at the Amsterdam Watch Company (see the feature image of this post). It’s a beautiful piece, fully restored to its original glory. While I was there, I got to hold a 1960 Rolex GMT Pepsi, worn by a pilot and fully gilted with a tropical dial.
Worth €40k. It is absolutely insane and is now on the list of trophy pieces that will be owned one day.
Wearing this watch on the wrist would make the ultimate combi for a cross-European road trip if it were paired with an air-cooled Porsche 991 from 1973.
One day, one day.
Polymarket Newsletter?
On that note of betting gains and funzies I’m experiencing there, I’m seriously considering starting a newsletter focused on Polymarket. There’s so much opportunity there, and it’s genuinely fascinating to analyze market odds, market sentiment, and the broader trends behind it all.
And maybe, maybe, I might be pretty okay at it.. Who knows..
Not sure if it’ll happen, but if you’re reading this in the future via my Polymarket newsletter, you’ll know how it all started.
