A Deep-dive on why Joe Biden will pardon his younger brother Jim Biden.
Jim Biden receiving a presidential pardon isn’t just a hunch; it’s a calculated belief grounded in precedent, logic, and the realities of brotherly solidarity. In this post, I’ll walk you through my analysis and arguments for and against a pardon of Jim Biden and explain why I’ve placed a $2,500 USDC bet on Polymarket for a 1-to-5 payout. With potential earnings of $12,540, I believe the odds—currently priced below 20%—are drastically miscalculated.
The odds for the pardon aren’t 100%, but I estimate them to be in the 70-80% range. Given Joe Biden’s track record, the timing of his lame-duck period, and the necessity of shielding his allies, himself, and his family from further scrutiny, the probability of a pardon for Jim Biden is high. The political cost? Minimal. The cost of inaction? Potentially catastrophic.
My Polymarket Track Record
Before diving into the details, let’s talk about my Polymarket stats as of this writing:
- Volume Traded: $167,494.48
- Markets Traded: 6
- Current Profit/Loss: +$3,308.06
- Most Profitable Trade: “Will Donald Trump Win the 2024 Election?” – $12,173.73 profit
I’m not a degenerate gambler; I approach political betting like an analyst approaching a stock.
Now, let’s break down why I believe Joe Biden will pardon his brother, Jim.
Why Jim Biden NEEDS a Pardon
The Current Legal Landscape
Jim Biden, President Joe Biden’s younger brother, is under scrutiny due to allegations of influence-peddling and providing false testimony to Congress. House Republicans have issued criminal referrals recommending prosecution, claiming Jim lied during depositions related to President Biden’s impeachment inquiry.
While no federal charges have been filed, the incoming Department of Justice (DOJ) leadership, backed by Donald Trump, could weaponize the legal system against Jim. A preemptive pardon would shield Jim from potential prosecution, especially in a politically charged environment.
Why a Preemptive Pardon Matters
A pardon in this context would serve as a blanket protection, safeguarding Jim from federal charges during a specific period. It’s not about absolving guilt but preventing a politically motivated DOJ from causing financial and reputational ruin. The risk of prosecution, even if minimal, carries immense potential fallout—for both Jim and Joe Biden.
Joe Biden’s Mindset and Precedents
1. He’s Done It Before
Joe Biden recently pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, in one of U.S. history’s most comprehensive preemptive pardons. By doing so, he demonstrated that he values shielding his family from legal jeopardy, even at the expense of political backlash. This action set a legal precedent for family pardons.
2. He’s Comfortable Using Clemency Powers
Biden has granted more pardons than any recent president—three times more than the second-highest record-holder. He’s shown a willingness to wield this power well before his final days, making it clear that he sees clemency as a legitimate tool.
3. His Legacy is at Stake
With his presidency ending in January 2025, Biden has only a few weeks left to take decisive action. A trial involving his brother could expose damaging information, tarnishing his legacy. Shielding Jim is also shielding himself.
Why a Pardon is the Most Strategic Move
4. Trump’s DOJ Will Target the Bidens
The incoming DOJ, led by Pam Bondi—a staunch Trump ally—will almost certainly pursue legal action against the Biden family. With Hunter already pardoned, Jim becomes the next logical target. A public prosecution could be weaponized to cause financial and emotional distress while keeping Biden’s scandals in the headlines.
5. The Fallout Will Be Minimal
Hunter’s pardon demonstrated that family pardons carry limited political consequences. With Biden’s presidency ending, his approval ratings no longer matter. Headlines will soon shift to Trump’s administration, and any criticism of the pardon will fade into the background.
6. The Risk of Prosecution Outweighs Inaction
Even if the chance of prosecution is low, the damage of a trial—financial, emotional, and reputational—is immense. Biden’s advisors will likely argue that preemptive action is the safest course.
The Human Element: Brotherly Loyalty
Jim Biden is Joe’s younger brother, and although public information on their relationship is scarce, their brotherly bond likely plays a significant role. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s holidays would have provided ample opportunities for Jim to make his case directly.
Jim could argue:
- “You pardoned Hunter—why not me?”
- “Even a small chance of prosecution will ruin me financially.”
- “A trial could drag you and the family into the spotlight again.”
- “A case against ME could spiral into a case against YOU.”
Family pressure—from Jim’s wife, children, and other relatives—would further push Joe to act.
Personal Pardons: A Historical Trend with Little Impact on Popularity
Presidents granting pardons to family members is not unprecedented, and history shows that such decisions have had minimal long-term impact on their popularity. Notable examples include:
- Donald Trump and Charles Kushner (2020):
Trump pardoned his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s father, Charles Kushner, who had been convicted of tax evasion, witness tampering, and illegal campaign contributions. Despite widespread criticism, Trump retained a strong base of support and remains a popular figure among Republicans. - Bill Clinton and Roger Clinton (2001):
In his final days in office, Clinton pardoned his half-brother, Roger Clinton, who had been convicted of drug-related charges. While controversial, this pardon did not significantly diminish Clinton’s post-presidency reputation, with his legacy more focused on economic achievements and global initiatives.
These examples demonstrate that personal pardons often reflect the president’s loyalty to family and close ties, and they rarely result in lasting damage to their public image or political influence. Joe Biden’s potential pardon of Jim Biden would align with this historical pattern.
Countering the Argument 1:
“There’s No Case Yet, So There’s No Need for a Pardon”
One of the most common counterpoints against the likelihood of Jim Biden receiving a pardon is the claim that “there’s no case yet.” Critics point to the fact that the criminal referral from House Republicans is non-binding and hasn’t led to a formal prosecution. They argue that a prosecution would have already begun if the evidence were truly damaging.
While this might seem reasonable on the surface, it ignores the nuances of the situation. Here’s why I believe this counterargument doesn’t hold water:
1. Criminal Referrals Can (and Do) Lead to Prosecutions
While it’s true that not all criminal referrals result in prosecutions, there are also several cases where such referrals have led to court proceedings. The idea that the lack of immediate action equates to no eventual case is overly simplistic.
- Timing Matters: Prosecutions, especially in high-profile or politically sensitive cases, often take time to build. The DOJ may not want to rush into a case that requires careful scrutiny.
- Precedent Exists: Historical examples, including cases from congressional investigations like Watergate or Iran-Contra, show that referrals can sit dormant for months or even years before being acted upon.
2. A Trump-Aligned DOJ Changes Everything
The argument that no prosecution has been pursued because the evidence is weak overlooks the incoming political reality.
- Weak Evidence Won’t Stop Retribution: A DOJ led by Pam Bondi, a determined Trump ally, is unlikely to be deterred by thin evidence. With Trump back in office, there will be significant pressure to target Biden’s family as part of a broader effort to retaliate for the legal challenges Trump faced during Biden’s presidency.
- Biden’s Precedent: Biden’s administration pursued legal cases against Trump, setting the stage for reciprocal actions. This dynamic creates an environment where even a weak case could be spun into a major spectacle.
- Motivation for Public Trials: Trump and his allies may not need a conviction to achieve their goals. The process of dragging Jim Biden through a trial, even without solid evidence, could still achieve its purpose: tarnishing Biden’s name and causing financial and emotional distress, as it has done with the Trump Clan.
3. Biden’s Current Presidency Shields Jim (For Now)
The lack of prosecution might actually be a strategic choice by the current DOJ under President Biden.
Here’s why:
- Presidential Influence: As long as Biden is in office, he has “the ability” to influence priorities within the DOJ, even if indirectly. It’s plausible that the DOJ has refrained from pursuing charges against Jim Biden out of respect for the sitting president.
- Thin Evidence Can Be Weaponized: Even if the evidence is weak, a politically motivated DOJ under Trump could spin it into something far bigger. Prosecution isn’t always about guilt—it’s about leverage, and this leverage could turn into a catastrophic public spectacle that drags Joe Biden into the narrative.
4. The Catastrophic Risk of Inaction
Even if the current DOJ doesn’t act, the stakes for Jim Biden—and, by extension, Joe Biden—remain incredibly high.
- A Prosecution Would Spiral Out of Control:
- A case against Jim Biden could lead to depositions, evidence gathering, and subpoenas that expose private or politically sensitive information about Joe Biden.
- A trial could dominate the media cycle, painting the Biden family as embroiled in scandal long after Joe Biden leaves office.
- Prevention is Key: Even a small chance of prosecution, amplified by a politically charged environment, is enough to justify a preemptive pardon. Biden would likely prefer to take this relatively minor political hit now rather than risk a prolonged legal and media battle.
The “No Case” Argument Just Falls Flat
The idea that “there’s no case yet” as a reason to dismiss the likelihood of a pardon ignores the underlying dynamics at play:
- Prosecutions can take time, especially in politically sensitive cases.
- A Trump-aligned DOJ would be motivated to pursue Jim Biden regardless of the strength of the evidence.
- Biden’s presidency likely offers Jim a temporary shield, but this protection evaporates on January 20, 2025.
Joe Biden is keenly aware of these risks, and the looming threat of prosecution—no matter how slim—makes a preemptive pardon not only logical but essential. By acting now, Joe can ensure his brother is shielded from future legal battles that could spiral out of control for the entire Biden family.
This is why I believe the counterargument about the lack of a case is shortsighted and does little to undermine the likelihood of a pardon for Jim Biden. The stakes are simply too high to leave this to chance.
Countering the Argument 2:
Party Leadership Will Force Biden to Give Up the Pardon
Some argue that Democratic Party leaders, upset over the fallout from Hunter Biden’s pardon, could pressure Joe Biden to avoid pardoning Jim Biden. This could include threats to withhold post-presidential benefits like speaking opportunities or institutional backing.
Why This Doesn’t Hold:
- Outgoing Presidents Have Autonomy:
Once a president enters the lame-duck period, they no longer depend on party goodwill. Historical examples like Gerald Ford’s pardon of Nixon and Bill Clinton’s pardon (including his brother) show that presidents act independently of party influence at the end of their terms. - Biden’s Legacy is Already Secure:
Joe Biden’s legacy is shaped by his legislative accomplishments and personal narrative. One more family-related pardon wouldn’t significantly alter public perception, as seen with Clinton’s controversial pardons, which didn’t hinder his post-presidency career. - Post-Presidential Benefits Are Limited in Scope:
Biden’s legally guaranteed perks, such as a pension and Secret Service protection, aren’t tied to party approval. Informal benefits like book deals and speaking tours depend more on public interest than party leadership. - Pardons Are Personal, Not Political:
Pardons often reflect personal loyalty rather than political calculations. Biden’s precedent with Hunter shows he prioritizes family over party optics, making a pardon for Jim consistent with his values.
Conclusion:
Party leaders may disapprove of a pardon for Jim Biden, but they lack the leverage to force Biden’s hand. Outgoing presidents operate with autonomy, and Biden’s decisions likely reflect personal priorities rather than party concerns.
Countering the Argument 3:
Trump Will Just Move On Since He Has Bigger Fish to Fry
Another claim is that Donald Trump, upon returning to office, will focus on his new agenda rather than pursuing past grievances, including legal actions against Jim Biden.
Why This Doesn’t Hold:
- Trump’s Own Statements:
Trump has openly vowed to investigate the Biden family, calling them the “Biden crime family.” His plan to appoint a special prosecutor underscores his intent to revisit these issues. - Jim Biden is an Accessible Target:
With Hunter Biden protected by a pardon, Jim Biden becomes a logical focus for a Trump-led DOJ. His alleged involvement in influence-peddling and the criminal referral from House Republicans make him an easy target. - Planned DOJ Overhaul:
Trump has discussed restructuring the DOJ to align with his goals. Appointing loyalists like Pam Bondi, who has been vocal about investigating the Bidens, increases the likelihood of legal action against Jim Biden. - Trump’s History of Retaliation:
Trump’s presidency was marked by attempts to use federal agencies against political opponents, such as Hillary Clinton. This pattern suggests he would pursue legal action against the Biden family as part of his broader narrative of retribution.
Conclusion:
The idea that Trump will “move on” is contradicted by his own words and actions. With Hunter Biden off the table, Jim Biden remains one of the few viable targets for Trump’s DOJ. A preemptive pardon for Jim protects him from the inevitable focus of the Trump administration.
When Will the Pardon of Jim Biden Likely Happen?
I believe the pardon will occur in Biden’s presidency’s final day/hours, alongside other last-minute clemency actions. This would align with Bill Clinton’s pardon of his half-brother on the final day of his presidency.
With Trump stepping in as the loud new president on day one, the news cycle will probably focus shortly on the pardon but then move on to the rating machine Donald Trump. Many out there want to see Trump fail, so the media will predominantly focus on his every move from his first hour in office, and Joe and his advisors know this. The nepotistic pre-emptive pardon of Joe’s brother will fly through the news cycle quicker than a fart in the wind.
Even though I have a firm conviction about the last-minute timing of the pardon, I can still be wrong, but that would work in my favor anyway. Waiting until the last day of his presidency, Biden minimizes public scrutiny and ensures the pardon aligns with the precedent set by Bill Clinton.
What Happens Until the Final Day at Which the Pardon Happens?
With 10+ days left in Joe Biden’s presidency, there’s still plenty of time for Polymarket speculators to react to any hints coming out of Washington. This creates an environment ripe for price swings in the “YES” market for Jim Biden’s pardon.
Here are my predictions for how the market will behave and my strategy to maximize my returns.
Price Trends: A Predicted Rollercoaster
I believe the price of a “YES” on Polymarket will trend downward in the coming weeks, with a potential bottom of less than 10% likelihood in the final hours of Biden’s presidency—assuming he hasn’t pardoned his brother by then.
However, this downward trend won’t be without volatility. Here’s what I anticipate:
- Short-Term Upticks:
- The “YES” price might see temporary surges to 30-40% due to sharp political bettors injecting liquidity into the market. These “whale” bets could drive demand higher, especially given the current lack of major players in this market.
- My own position of 2,500 USDC already makes me a top 20 “YES” holder, highlighting the low volume and potential for sharp bettors to significantly impact pricing.
- Final Hours Collapse:
- As the days dwindle and no pardon materializes, I expect the price to bottom out as low as 5 to 10% in the last day(s) or hours of Biden’s presidency. This is where most speculators will likely abandon ship, assuming that no pardon will be issued.
My Strategy: Ride the Waves, Maximize Returns
Given these anticipated market dynamics, here’s how I plan to navigate the swings:
- Cashing Out on Upticks:
- If the price of a “YES” spikes to the 30-40% range, I will consider selling portions (10-30%) of my position to lock in some profits. This allows me to keep funds on the sidelines, ready to redeploy when the price inevitably drops again. Plus, if no longer deployed later, these early winnings could shield me from a total loss if my bet proves wrong.
- Rebuying at the Bottom:
- Potentially, when the price hits a low, especially near 10%, I might use my sidelined funds to increase my position, maximizing the potential payout for what I believe is a high-probability outcome.
- Staying the Course:
- If the market doesn’t present opportunities to sell at higher prices, I’ll hold my position steady until the final moment. With the current size of my bet being only 0.5% of my total liquid cash reserves, I’m comfortable riding this out to the end.
Why I’m Not Increasing My Bet
Even though this market presents compelling opportunities, I’ve decided not to deploy additional funds. My current position is carefully calculated, and I’ve learned from experience (like my 12k Trump bet) that sticking to your plan is critical. With the likelihood of a pardon happening at the very last moment, the market won’t provide a clear exit strategy. This is a ride-it-out scenario, and I’m committed to seeing it through.
Final Thoughts
Joe, I believe in you—you’re not sleeping on this one! The odds may seem against it now, but history, logic, and family dynamics all point to a last-minute pardon for your brother Jim. And as a bettor, I’m positioning myself to make the most of the swings leading up to that moment.
The market may doubt it, but I see the bigger picture. This isn’t just a bet—it’s a calculated move. Let’s see if this part of the multiverse favors the bold version of me.