On Running Improvements
With my 100K Snowdonia race just eight days away, this month has been all about looking back and measuring progress.
Six months ago, I did a VO₂ max and lactate threshold test in Amsterdam to understand where I stood at the start of my training block. At the end of April, I did the same tests again to see what had changed.
Here’s what the comparison shows:
- VO₂ Max: My relative VO₂ max improved from 44.7 to 46.2 ml/min/kg. That means my aerobic capacity has increased. My absolute VO₂ max dropped slightly from 4164 to 4017 ml/min, likely because of weight and muscle loss. The key takeaway is that my performance stayed stable despite this, which means I’ve become more efficient.
- Body Composition: I lost 6.2 kg, dropping from 93.2 to 87.0 kg. My body fat percentage fell from 23.6% to 22.0%, and my fat-free mass went from 71.2 to 67.9 kg. Even though I lost some muscle, I’m leaner and better suited for endurance running.
- Lactate Thresholds: My aerobic threshold speed increased from 9.8 to 10.1 km/h, and my anaerobic threshold speed improved from 12.1 to 12.5 km/h. I can now run faster before hitting my fatigue limits.
- Heart Rate Efficiency: My heart rate at comparable efforts has dropped, so my cardiovascular system is stronger and more efficient.
- Breathing Patterns: Minor shifts, but overall stable. Nothing worrying.
- Running cadence: I improved my running cadence from an average of 160-165 to a 170-175 range. I did this through very gradual cadence increments with Spotify BPM music lists tuned to specific cadence ranges so I could gradually improve the cadence without too much new stress on the body or risking injury, which can happen quickly when increasing one’s cadence.
These results reflect a consistent training effort and smarter pacing over the past six months. I’m fitter, more efficient, and in better shape for the mountain race ahead.
On Losing a Big Bet
I lost a big one this month.
It was a bet on the Canadian Conservative Party to win the next election. All the polls favored the Liberals. I went against the grain and placed a significant amount on what I believed to be undervalued odds.
It didn’t work out. I lost about $9,000, plus another $10,000 in potential profit I didn’t lock in. That’s a hit. I’m still up about $23,000 in total betting profits over my lifetime, but this loss was a gut punch.
What hurts most is not the thesis but how I managed it.
There were two clear points where I could have cashed out for a profit. I didn’t.
If I choose to swing big, I also need to manage big. This time, that discipline wasn’t there.
It’s a hard lesson but an important one. The kind that makes you sharper, if you let it.
On Writing a Newsletter
In my previous update, I mentioned starting a newsletter around Polymarket. I didn’t plan it out much, but in the last six weeks, I wrote and published seven editions of a new newsletter I call Poly Whales.
Here are some of them:
It has been a fun, creative outlet and a way to think critically about market behavior. If you’re into betting markets and edge-seeking, it might interest you. But this blog will stay focused more broadly on life, goals, and the process.
The results so far are pretty interesting since starting the letter 6 weeks ago:
- Subscribers: I got 51 subscribers in total, all of whom are people I do not know. They mainly came in through the Polymarket comments, my Polymarket profile page, and Substack itself.
- 30-day views: 1500+ total views on my posts in the past 30 days, which is astonishing.
- Open rate: This is also astonishing since it’s at 40%.
This data hints that I’m finding out that there is an appetite for this type of content. Now, we need to see where I can take this. I believe there is also a market for this type of content on LinkedIn. Putting the link between real-life business events and then making the betting market links, I think, is an untapped content niche that could get some good views.
On Building
The most enjoyable side project this month has been building Python scripts to reverse engineer the trading activity of some of Polymarket’s most consistent traders.
I’ve been writing Python scripts that scan the market, identify patterns, and even use GPT to flag “true bond” markets. These are high-probability, short-term markets that have very little risk if you’re right. Eventually, I want to automate this fully. That means placing trades via the order book and understanding volume, slippage, and execution strategy at a deeper level.
I’m also tracking a specific user with an unusually stable and repeatable pattern. There’s something there, but I’ll wait before making claims. First, I need to understand it better and test it in the wild.
On Writing A little Too Much
Between this blog, the newsletter, and four new LinkedIn articles, I wrote more in May than I probably have in any other month this year.
Here are the LinkedIn pieces if you want to check them out:
- I ran a 52K trail race in 8 hours
- People didn’t believe I ran 52K
- The First Real Data Hoarders
- Same guy. Different face. Let’s talk sandwiches.
To be honest, I’m feeling some writing fatigue. I love the clarity that writing brings, but I also know I need to pause a little to refill the tank.
The rest of the month will be spent completing the Snowdonia 100k, a 6500 m-high race, and then relaxing after that, focusing on work and reverse engineering the Polymarket traders.
And I do not have any new running goals in the calendar yet. So that might change in the coming weeks.
